Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomileri Karması: EM2-18 modeli uygulaması
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Dosyalar
Tarih
2021
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Ekonominin makro anlamdaki krizlerden uzak dönemlerinde, ülkelerin sergiledikleri performansların potansiyel performanslarına en yakın sonuçları vereceği varsayılmaktadır. Bu varsayıma karşın sürdürülen performansların krizleri içeren senaryolarda nasıl bir trend izleyeceği özellikle önem taşımaktadır. Amaç: Çalışmada gelişmekte olan ülkelerden seçilmiş 41 ülkenin 2015-2019 ve 2016-2020 dönemlerinde; büyüme oranı, enflasyon oranı, işsizlik oranı, faiz oranı ve döviz kuru göstergelerinden oluşturulan makroekonomik performanslarına göre Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomileri Karması'nın (EM2-18) belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu çerçevede, ülkelerin 2020’de ortaya çıkan pandemi krizinden önceki 2015-2019 dönemiyle krizin dâhil olduğu 2016-2020 dönemi verileri analiz edilmiştir. Ayrıca, söz konusu analiz dönemlerinde Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomileri Karması'nı oluşturan ülkelerin bütçe açığı/GSYH, cari açık/GSYH ve kamu borç stoku/GSYH oranları makroekonomik performansın yan etkileri olarak ele alınmıştır. Yöntem: Çalışmada, ülkelerin yıllık ve beş yıllık ortalamaları dikkate alınarak makroekonomik performans sıralaması yapmak amacıyla Çok Kriterli Karar Verme Teknikleri kullanılmıştır. Yeni yıl eklendiğinde beş yıllık dönemin ilk yılı çıkarılmaktadır. Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci (AHP) ile makroekonomik performans göstergeleri ağırlıklandırılarak endeks oluşturulmuş ve ülkelerin TOPSIS modeliyle sıralamaları belirlenmiştir. Bulgular: 41 ülkeden ilk 18’e girenler, görece daha iyi makroekonomik performansa sahip olduklarından Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomileri Karması'nı oluşturan ülkeler olarak belirlenirken diğerleri ise söz konusu Karmay’ya girebilecek aday ülkeler olarak ele alınmıştır. Çalışmada kullanılan modelin makroekonomik performans analizi, geçmiş beş yıllık göstergelerin yıllık ve beş yıllık ortalamalarını dikkate aldığından orta vadeli süreçlerde kamu otoritelerinin tercih ve önceliklerinin doğrudan/dolaylı sonuçlarına da işaret etmektedir. Cari açık, bütçe açığı ve kamu borç stoku göstergelerindeki değişimler analizin öne çıkan önemli başka bir özelliğini yansıtmaktadır. Seçilen ülkelerin coğrafi dağılımı ise dünyanın her bölgesini içerecek şekilde tasarlanmıştır ve yüksek performanslı ülkelerin genel olarak Asya kıtasında kümelendiği görülmüştür. Özgünlük: Çalışmada kullanılan yaklaşımla literatürde yer alan makroekonomik performans analizi makroekonomik istikrar perspektifiyle birlikte ele alınmakta ve bu yaklaşıma ekonomi politik boyut katılarak farklı bir bakış açısı sunulmaktadır. Böyle bir yaklaşım, ulusal ve küresel ekonomik paydaşların karar alma ve uygulama süreçlerinde kullanabilecekleri makroekonomik veri ve bilgi setinin üretilmesini mümkün kılmaktadır. Modelin daha sonraki uygulamalarında, gerçekleşmiş verilerin yanında göstergelerin yıllık tahminleri kullanılarak Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomileri Karması'nın bir yıl sonraki muhtemel ülkeleri de belirlenecektir.
It is assumed that the performances of the countries will give the closest results to their potential performances in the periods of the economy away from the macro crises. Despite this assumption, it is particularly important to see what trend sustained performances will follow in scenarios involving crises. It is assumed that the performances of the countries will give the closest results to their potential performances in the periods of the economy away from the macro crises. Objective: In the study, it was aimed to determine the Emerging Markets Mix (EM2-18) of 41 countries selected from developing countries based on their relative macroeconomic performances, which is formed from indicators of growth rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate, interest rate, and exchange rate in 2015-2019 and 2016-2020 periods. In this framework, the data of selected countries for the 2015-2019 period before the global pandemic crisis that emerged in 2020 and the 2016-2020 period, including the crisis, were analysed. In addition, budget deficit / GDP, current account deficit / GDP, and public debt stock / GDP ratios of Emerging Markets Mix countries in the analysed periods are considered as side effects of macroeconomic performance. Method: In the study, Multi-Criteria Decision Making Techniques were used to rank the macroeconomic performance by considering the annual and five-year averages of the countries. When the new year is added, the first year of the five-year period is removed. The index was created by weighting the macroeconomic performance indicators with the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), and then the rankings of the countries were determined using the TOPSIS model. Findings: While the top 18 out of 41 countries are determined as the countries that make up the Emerging Markets Mix since they have relatively better macroeconomic performance, others are considered as candidate countries that can enter this Mix. Since the macroeconomic performance analysis of the model used in the study takes into account the annual and five-year averages of the past five-year indicators, it also points to the direct and indirect results of the preferences and priorities of public authorities in medium-term processes. The changes in the current account deficit, budget deficit and high public debt stock indicators reflect an important feature of the analysis that stands out in this context. The geographical distribution of the selected countries has been designed to include every region of the world and it has been observed that high-performance countries generally cluster in the Asian continent. Originality: With the approach used in the study, the macroeconomic performance analysis in the literature is considered together with the macroeconomic stability perspective and a different perspective is created by adding the political economy dimension to this approach. Such an approach makes it possible to produce macroeconomic data and information sets that national and global economic stakeholders can use in decision-making and implementation processes. In the subsequent applications of the model, the possible countries of the Emerging Markets Mix in the next year will be determined by using the annual estimates of the indicators as well as the realised data.
It is assumed that the performances of the countries will give the closest results to their potential performances in the periods of the economy away from the macro crises. Despite this assumption, it is particularly important to see what trend sustained performances will follow in scenarios involving crises. It is assumed that the performances of the countries will give the closest results to their potential performances in the periods of the economy away from the macro crises. Objective: In the study, it was aimed to determine the Emerging Markets Mix (EM2-18) of 41 countries selected from developing countries based on their relative macroeconomic performances, which is formed from indicators of growth rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate, interest rate, and exchange rate in 2015-2019 and 2016-2020 periods. In this framework, the data of selected countries for the 2015-2019 period before the global pandemic crisis that emerged in 2020 and the 2016-2020 period, including the crisis, were analysed. In addition, budget deficit / GDP, current account deficit / GDP, and public debt stock / GDP ratios of Emerging Markets Mix countries in the analysed periods are considered as side effects of macroeconomic performance. Method: In the study, Multi-Criteria Decision Making Techniques were used to rank the macroeconomic performance by considering the annual and five-year averages of the countries. When the new year is added, the first year of the five-year period is removed. The index was created by weighting the macroeconomic performance indicators with the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), and then the rankings of the countries were determined using the TOPSIS model. Findings: While the top 18 out of 41 countries are determined as the countries that make up the Emerging Markets Mix since they have relatively better macroeconomic performance, others are considered as candidate countries that can enter this Mix. Since the macroeconomic performance analysis of the model used in the study takes into account the annual and five-year averages of the past five-year indicators, it also points to the direct and indirect results of the preferences and priorities of public authorities in medium-term processes. The changes in the current account deficit, budget deficit and high public debt stock indicators reflect an important feature of the analysis that stands out in this context. The geographical distribution of the selected countries has been designed to include every region of the world and it has been observed that high-performance countries generally cluster in the Asian continent. Originality: With the approach used in the study, the macroeconomic performance analysis in the literature is considered together with the macroeconomic stability perspective and a different perspective is created by adding the political economy dimension to this approach. Such an approach makes it possible to produce macroeconomic data and information sets that national and global economic stakeholders can use in decision-making and implementation processes. In the subsequent applications of the model, the possible countries of the Emerging Markets Mix in the next year will be determined by using the annual estimates of the indicators as well as the realised data.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Makroekonomik Performans Analizi, Yükselen Piyasalar, AHP, TOPSIS, Macroeconomic Performance Analysis, Emerging Markets
Kaynak
İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi
WoS Q Değeri
Scopus Q Değeri
Cilt
20
Sayı
40
