Cement production and CO2 emission cycles in the USA: evidence from MS-ARDL and MS-VARDL causality methods with century-long data

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dc.authorid0000-0002-9177-2780en_US
dc.contributor.authorBildirici, Melike E.
dc.contributor.authorErsin, Özgür Ömer
dc.date.accessioned2024-05-21T12:33:52Z
dc.date.available2024-05-21T12:33:52Z
dc.date.issued2024en_US
dc.departmentFakülteler, İşletme Fakültesi, Uluslararası Ticaret Bölümüen_US
dc.description.abstractThe cement industry is among the top three polluters among all industries and the examination of the nonlinear and cointegration dynamics between cement production and CO2 emissions has not been explored. Focusing on this research gap, the study employs a novel Markov-switching autoregressive distributed lag (MS-ARDL) model and its generalization to vector error correction, the MS-VARDL model, for regime-dependent causality testing. The new method allows the determination of nonlinear long-run and short-run relations, regime duration, and cement-induced-CO2 emission cycles in the USA for a historically long dataset covering 1900–2021. Empirical findings point to nonlinearity in all series and nonlinear cointegration between cement production and cement-induced CO2 emissions. The phases of regimes coincide closely with NBER’s official economic cycles for the USA. The second regime, characterized by expansions, lasts twice as long relative to the first, the contractionary regime, which contains severe economic recessions, as well as economic crises, the 1929 Great Depression, the 1973 Oil Crisis, the 2009 Great Recession, and the COVID-19 Shutdown and Wars, including WWI and II. In both regimes, the adverse effects of cement production on CO2 emissions cannot be rejected with varying degrees both in the long and the short run. Markov regime-switching vector autoregressive distributed lag (MS-VARDL) causality tests confirm unidirectional causality from cement production to CO2 emissions in both regimes. The traditional Granger causality test produces an over-acceptance of causality in a discussed set of cases. Industry-level policy recommendations include investments to help with the shift to green kiln technologies and energy efficiency. National-level policies on renewable energy and carbon capture are also vital considering the energy consumption of cement production.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11356-024-33489-2en_US
dc.identifier.pmid38724851en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85192542477en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityN/Aen_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11467/7282
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-024-33489-2
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakPubMeden_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherSpringeren_US
dc.relation.ispartofEnvironmental Science and Pollution Researchen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectCement; Air pollution; Environmental sustainability; Markov-switching; Cointegration; ARDL; Causalityen_US
dc.titleCement production and CO2 emission cycles in the USA: evidence from MS-ARDL and MS-VARDL causality methods with century-long dataen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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