A framework for sustainable urban water management through demand and supply forecasting: The case of Istanbul

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dc.contributor.authorYalçıntaş, Murat
dc.contributor.authorBulu, Melih
dc.contributor.authorKüçükvar, Murat
dc.contributor.authorSamadi, Hamidreza
dc.date.accessioned2020-11-21T15:54:28Z
dc.date.available2020-11-21T15:54:28Z
dc.date.issued2015en_US
dc.departmentİstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesien_US
dc.description.abstractThe metropolitan city of Istanbul is becoming overcrowded and the demand for clean water is steeply rising in the city. The use of analytical approaches has become more and more critical for forecasting the water supply and demand balance in the long run. In this research, Istanbul's water supply and demand data is collected for the period during 2006 and 2014. Then, using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the time series water supply and demand forecasting model is constructed for the period between 2015 and 2018. Three important sustainability metrics such as water loss to supply ratio, water loss to demand ratio, and water loss to residential demand ratio are also presented. The findings show that residential water demand is responsible for nearly 80% of total water use and the consumption categories including commercial, industrial, agriculture, outdoor, and others have a lower share in total water demand. The results also show that there is a considerable water loss in the water distribution system which requires significant investments on the water supply networks. Furthermore, the forecasting results indicated that pipeline projects will be critical in the near future due to expected increases in the total water demand of Istanbul. The authors suggest that sustainable management of water can be achieved by reducing the residential water use through the use of water efficient technologies in households and reduction in water supply loss through investments on distribution infrastructure. © 2015 by the authors.en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/su70811050en_US
dc.identifier.endpage11067en_US
dc.identifier.issn2071-1050
dc.identifier.issue8en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-84940513123en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1en_US
dc.identifier.startpage11050en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.3390/su70811050
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11467/3836
dc.identifier.volume7en_US
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000361600500038en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ3en_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherMDPI AGen_US
dc.relation.ispartofSustainability (Switzerland)en_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectARIMAen_US
dc.subjectDemanden_US
dc.subjectIstanbulen_US
dc.subjectTime-series forecastingen_US
dc.subjectUrban water sustainabilityen_US
dc.subjectWater supplyen_US
dc.titleA framework for sustainable urban water management through demand and supply forecasting: The case of Istanbulen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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