House price connectedness and consumer sentiment in an era of destabilizing macroeconomic conditions: Empirical evidence from Türkiye

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dc.contributor.authorBalcılar, Mehmet
dc.contributor.authorUsman, Ojonugwa
dc.contributor.authorYülek, Murat
dc.contributor.authorAğan, Büşra
dc.contributor.authorErdal, Bahar
dc.date.accessioned2023-11-13T08:09:59Z
dc.date.available2023-11-13T08:09:59Z
dc.date.issued2023en_US
dc.departmentFakülteler, İşletme Fakültesi, İktisat Bölümüen_US
dc.description.abstractThis study analyzes changes in the connectedness of 26 regional house prices in Turkiye and determines how consumer sentiments affect ¨ connectedness in the era of destabilizing macroeconomic conditions over the period from January 2010 to April 2022. To this end, we estimate network connectedness using a Lasso VAR model and time-varying analyses using a rolling linear VAR model for the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. Our empirical results provide evidence of a high connectedness of house prices, with a greater degree of connectedness witnessed during the post-crisis period across regions in Turkiye. The results further divulge that Ankara (region TR51) is a major transmitter of connectedness ¨ during the pre-crisis period, while Istanbul (region TR10) is a major transmitter of connectedness during the post-crisis period. By and large, our results show that the degree of connectedness is associated with the period of financial and economic destabilization, characterized by a significant depreciation of the local currency, rising inflation rates, and an increasing cost of borrowing accompanied by rising loan restructurings and defaults. Furthermore, the empirical results indicate substantial evidence of a positive impact of consumer sentiment on the degree of connectedness during the post-crisis period. These empirical results are validated by the results of the time-varying Granger causality testsen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.bir.2023.08.006en_US
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85169617871en_US
dc.identifier.scopusqualityN/Aen_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11467/7002
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2023.08.006
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001169547100001en_US
dc.identifier.wosqualityN/Aen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Scienceen_US
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopusen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherBorsa Istanbul Anonim Sirketien_US
dc.relation.ispartofBorsa Istanbul Reviewen_US
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanıen_US
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccessen_US
dc.subjectHouse prices; Network analysis; Connectedness; Granger causality; Macroeconomic crisis; Turkiyeen_US
dc.titleHouse price connectedness and consumer sentiment in an era of destabilizing macroeconomic conditions: Empirical evidence from Türkiyeen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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