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Öğe Support vector machine-based and crisis-pertaining forecasts of a subset of foreign currency-denominated bank deposits in Türkiye(İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi, 2024) Kara, AhmetThis paper presents support vector machine-based forecasts of a subset of the banking system’s foreign currency-denominated deposit-growth for a crisis-inclusive period in Türkiye. Forecasts concerning such periods pose challenges that may not always be efficiently handled within the confines of conventional statistical methods. This brings out a need to make recourse to alternative methods, one of which is employed in this paper. The method employed in the paper belongs to a particular group of machine learning/artificial intelligence algorithms known as support vector machines, which could yield successful results in a wide range of cases. We demonstrate that proper employment of support vector machines leads to a reasonably high degree of accuracy in forecasting and produces, with a small margin of error, real-valuereplicating trajectories of the target variable in question. Accurate forecasts of foreign currencydenominated deposit growth rates at crisis-inclusive junctures could be of practical significance to the policy designers attempting to limit, in an optimal manner, the magnitudes or growths of the foreign currency-denominated deposits within the banking system. This article shows how the objective of practical significance in question could be achieved with an alternative method.Öğe Blockchain based decentralized lending protocols: A return analysis between S&P 500 and DeFi assets(2023) Kaplan, Betül; Benlı, Vahit Ferhan; Aykaç Alp, ElçinThis article explores the financial benefits and challenges of decentralized finance (DeFi) in the banking sector. DeFi revolutionizes financial services through blockchain technology and smart contracts, offering efficient lending and borrowing without intermediaries. The article presents an empirical study that analyzes the relationship between S&P 500 and DeFi assets (MKR, AAVE, COMP), comparing centralized and decentralized finance. Using an EGARCH model, it estimates asset volatility and examines asymmetry and leverage effects. The results show a positive relationship between S&P 500 and MKR and COMP, while AAVE has no significant relationship. The EGARCH variance equation reveals a positive effect of AAVE and a negative effect of COMP on S&P 500 volatility, with leverage effects for S&P 500 and COMP. DeFi has transformative potential, fostering inclusivity. This article aims to contribute by providing a comprehensive return analysis of S&P 500 and DeFi assets for investors seeking alternative investment options.Öğe Educational wage premia and wage inequality in Turkey(Inderscience Publishers, 2021) Kent, Oya; Sefil Tansever, SinemThis paper examines the effect of educational attainment on the male wage inequality in Turkey by employing Structure of Earnings Survey Micro Data compiled by TURKSTAT. We compare two years, namely 2006 and 2014, by estimating the Mincerian wage equation. Quantile regression method is utilised in order to explore the differentials in educational wage premia along the wage distribution. Our findings show that, despite the overall increase in the male wage inequality over the period, inequality declined at the top end of the wage distribution while displaying a significant increase at the bottom end. Education had a positive impact on both within and between groups inequality in both years. In general, educational wage premia in all education categories along the wage distribution increased, with two exceptions (vocational high school and higher education). Especially, in higher education category, educational wage premia have declined at the top half of the wage distribution while increased in lower quantiles. Copyright © 2021 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.Öğe Stabilizing instability-suboptimality-and-chaos-pronefluctuations at crisis junctures: Stochastic possibilitiesfor crisis management(Wiley, 2021) Kara, AhmetThere is a rich array of ways in which unstable, suboptimal and chaos-prone fluc-tuations could appear at crisis junctures. The richness of the patterns associatedwith such fluctuation s presents considerable challenges to the theory of crises aswell as the policies targeting various tendencies induced by crises. Dealing withcomplexly interwoven unstable , suboptimal and potentially chaotic tendencies isnot an easy task, which may require new combinations of methods analysing thecausal connections and feedback relations embedded in the web of relations char-acterizing the crisis-junctures. In this paper, we develop an illustrative dynamicmodel that takes into account such causally connected feedback relations so as toconstruct and simulate stochastic policy options, which can influence and helpstabilize unstable, suboptimal and chaotic trajectories of exchange rates at finan-cial crisis junctures. For reasons of convenience and practical relevance, we exem-plified such policies using taxes. One of the constructed examples makes use astochastic taxing policy to influence the coefficient of adjustment, which influ-ences the amount of adjustments and hence fluctuations in the market. We incor-porate a software-based optimization setup into the simulation model to find theoptimal values of the policy parameter to be used for the purpose of simulatingthe trajectories of the exchange rates. It turns out that the suggested policies couldinfluence/reduce the fluctuations in the market and hence help stabilize unstableorchaoticexchangeratetrajectories.Thesecondexampleinthepaperiscon-cerned with an empirical case relating to a particular financial crisis juncture ofTurkey during May–November 2018.Öğe Simulation-Based Decision-Support Model and Exercises for Universities(İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi, 2014) Kara, AhmetThis paper presents a system dynamics-based decision-support model for universities so as to simulate the dynamic trajectory of key decision variables, namely teaching performance and research performance, and exemplify the design of optimal policies that enable universities to achieve certain desired objectives. The paper constructs a simple dynamic-stochastic model with properly specified adjustment dynamics and employs a system dynamics method to simulate the trajectories in question and to optimize the relevant parameter values. Examples presented in the paper could easily be extended to analyze the effects of a variety of factors, such as academic capital, physical capital or income, on teaching performance and research performance. The model could be generalized to take into account the possible and potentially highly complex interrelations among different fields.Öğe Türkiye’de gelir polarizasyonu eğilimi ve kaynakları(Okan Üniversitesi, 2021) Sefil Tansever, SinemIncome polarization which refers to the shrinkage of the middle income group and polarization of the income distribution towards the low and /or high income group, is a distributional measure that is related to the concepts of income distribution, such as poverty and income inequality, but should be examined separately due to its conceptual differences. This study examines the magnitude and trends of income polarization, as well as its relation to income inequality and its income sources in Turkey between 2006 and 2018 by using data from Income and Living Condition Survey. The obtained results showed that Wolfston bi-polarization index and DER index decreased by11.9% and 3.5% respectively, while the former had a downward trend and the letter was relatively more stable during the analysis period. A more detailed examination of DER index revealed that income distances between income groups in distribution decreased while the income groups became more pronounced. It was observed that social transfers, which decreased the income polarization at the beginning of the analysis period, increased the income polarization at the end. It was also revealed that most significant income source of income polarization was salary and wage incomes.Öğe Ex-post assessment of heterogenous effects of trade agreements: the case of Turkey(Press Academia, 2021) Demiroğlu, Özlem; Aykaç Alp, ElçinPurpose -Free trade agreements (FTA) are prominent features of international trade. The proliferation of FTAs over the past 20 years is one of the most prominent aspects of the global economy. Turkey has also signed many FTAs in this period on the basis of obligations stemming from customs union with European Union. FTAs aim to increase trade flows and welfare through liberalizing trade and achieving a deeper integration between partners. In this respect, FTAs are getting more and more important as international trade is a crucial tool to boost the economic development. Indeed, getting the utmost benefit from FTAs is very important for Turkey and other developing countries. Regarding the increasing importance of FTAs, the ex-post effects of FTAs on Turkey’s trade are examined in this paper. Methodology -In the light of recent techniques, structural gravity model is used in this study. Trade data used consists of aggregate trade flows among pairs of 90 countries from 1988-2016, 29 years in total. As the estimation technique, Ppml_panel_sg command is used. This is an estimation command for Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) regression for panel gravity models with time varying importer and exporter fixed effects and time invariant pair fixed effects. Findings-The results indicate the econometric evidence of the impact of FTAs on Turkey’s trade. When all FTAs are considered at macro level, the results suggest that, FTAs had a statistically significant positive effect on exports and imports of Turkey. However, at micro level, there is substantial variation and heterogeneity in the agreement specific effects and trade direction specific effects within the agreement. Conclusion-This paper provides the first evidence that the impact of FTAs are heterogenous and not all the FTAs affected the trade of Turkey in the same positive way. Even within the same agreement, the effects vary considerably depending on the direction of trade.Öğe Türkiye’nin gıda ticareti ve açıklanmış karşılaştırmalı üstünlükler modeli: Jelatin pazarı örneği(Mehmet Ali KARAMAN, 2021) Maden, Halide Selin; Özcan, YunusKüreselleşme ile yeni pazarların ortaya çıkması, bilgi ve iletişim teknolojilerindeki ilerlemeler sayesinde uluslararası ticaret kolaylaşmıştır. Bunun sonucunda, uluslararası ve işletmeler arasında rekabet artışı önem kazanmıştır. Rekabet gücü ülkelerin, endüstrilerin başarı ve performans göstergesi olarak kabul edilmektedir. Küresel piyasalarda rekabet gücü elde etmek ve geleceğe yönelik izlenecek yol haritasının belirlenmesinde, analizlerin yapılarak doğru stratejilerin geliştirilmesi oldukça önemlidir. Çalışmanın amacı, 2010-2019 yılları arasında Türkiye’nin gıda jelatin pazarı için uluslararası rekabet gücünü Açıklanmış Karşılaştırmalı Üstünlükler (AKÜ) yöntemi ile belirlemek, ne şekilde ilerlediği görmek ve Türkiye’nin rekabet gücünün dünya gıdada kullanılabilir jelatin pazarında hâkim ülkeler arasındaki konumunu ortaya koymaktır. Ülkelerin dış ticaret verilerine ulaşmak için International Trade Center (ITC) Trade Map veri tabanlarından faydalanılmıştır ve ürün sınıflandırmasında dünya genelinde jelatin için fasıl numarası olan 3503.00 kullanılmıştır. 2010-2019 yıllar arasında 3503.00 için Türkiye ve dünyada gıda jelatin ihracatında ilk on sıralamada yer alan ülkelerin AKÜ indeksleri hesaplanmış ve uluslararası rekabet güçleri incelenmiştir. Türkiye için rekabet gücünün 2010-2015 yılları arasında düşük olduğu, 2016 yılında ise sınırda olduğu gözlemlenmiştir. 2016 yılından 2019 yılına kadar rekabet gücünde düşüş yaşanmadan kademeli olarak arttığı ve rekabet gücünün yüksek olduğu saptanmıştır.
