21. yüzyıl krizlerinin ticari bankalara etkileri: Türkiye analizi
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2022
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Krizler ekonomilerde ve sektörlerde önemli kırılganlıkların oluşmasına neden olmaktadır. Krizlerin neden ve sonuçlarının tahlilini içeren süreçler önlem alma veya riskleri yönetme kabiliyeti açısından önemlidir. Özellikle 21. yüzyıl krizlerinin daha önceki dönemin krizlerinden farklılaştığı düşünüldüğünde bu krizlerin ekonomik, finansal etkilerinin veya sonuçlarının derinlemesine tartışılması gerekliliği ortaya çıkmaktadır. Bu bağlamda çalışmada 21. Yüzyıl krizlerinin ekonomide önemli bir rol/fonksiyona sahip bankacılık sektörüne etkilerinin belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Krizlerin Türkiye'de yer alan ticari bankaları etkileme derecesi ve biçimi iki farklı yaklaşıma dayalı olarak ele alınmıştır. İlk yaklaşımda söz konusu krizler döneminde profesyonel görevde bulunan belirlenmiş hedef kitleye yönelik demografik özellikler ve krizin etkileri olmak üzere iki bölümden oluşan derinlemesine mülakat tekniği kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın amacına yönelik olarak hedef kitle 2001 Krizi, 2008 Küresel Finans Krizi ve COVID-19 Krizi dönemlerinde aktif görev yürütmüş, üst düzey finans ve bankacılık sektörü yöneticiliğinde bulunmuş kişilerden oluşmuştur. Böylece bankacılık sektöründe görev yapan profesyonellerin 2001 Bankacılık krizi, 2008-2009 Küresel Finans Krizi ve COVID-19 Krizi'nin sektörü nasıl etkilediğine dair görüşleri detaylıca değerlendirilmiştir. İkinci yaklaşımda bankaların finansal tablolarındaki temel büyüklüklerin değişim yönü ve boyutu istatistiki olarak analiz edilmiştir. Bu bağlamda öncelikle verilerin 1996-2021 döneminde eğilimleri incelenmiş ve 5 yıllık ortalama değerlerine göre kriz değişim süreçleri irdelenmiştir. Daha sonra çalışmada krizlerin aylık dönemlerde etkilerini görebilmek amacıyla bilanço göstergelerinin hem eğilim hem de kriz öncesi ve sonrası dönemlerde değişimleri incelenmiştir. Mevcut veriler ışığında Aralık 2002-Haziran 2022 dönemine ait aylık veriler ile sektörde kriz dönemlerinde etkilerin kriz öncesi/sonrası dönemlere göre istatistiksel farklılık gösterip göstermediği parametrik olmayan Wilcoxon İşaret Testi ile değerlendirilmiştir. Bulgular krizlerin Türkiye'de bankacılık sistemi üzerinde etkili olduğunu hem mevcut veriler hem de profesyoneller açısından ortaya çıkarırken özellikle 2001 döneminde yaşanan krizin etkilerinin diğer krizlerden farklılaştığı vurgulanmıştır.
Crises cause critical vulnerabilities in economies and its sectors. The identification of the causes and consequences of crises is significant for the ability to take action or manage risks. Especially when it is considered that 21st-century crises are different from previous crises, the necessity of discussing the economic, and financial effects or consequences of these crises in-depth arises. In this context, the study aims to determine the impacts of 21st-century crises on the banking sector, which plays a critical role in the economy. The degree and form of the impact of crises on commercial banks in Türkiye are approached in two different ways. In the first approach, an in-depth interview technique consisting of two sections, demographic, and impacts of the crisis, was used for the target population. The target population was composed of people who have an active professional duty in the banking system during the 2001 Crisis, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and the COVID-19 Crisis and who were in senior finance and banking sector managerial positions. Thus, the views of professionals working in the banking sector on how the 2001 Banking Crisis, the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis, and the COVID-19 Crisis affected the sector were evaluated in detail. In the second approach, the change in the trend of basic sizes in the financial statements of banks was analyzed statistically. The study takes into account the ratio of equity to total assets as a representation of sector capital adequacy, the ratio of loans to total assets as a representation of asset quality, the ratio of deposits to total assets as a representation of liquidity, the average asset, and equity profitability as a representation of profitability, the ratio of interest income to interest expenses as a representation of income structure, and the ratio of non-performing loans to total loans as a representation of risk. Additionally, the conversion rate of loans to deposits is also considered a representation of the process in banking activities. Firstly, the data trend in the 1996-2021 period was investigated and the crisis change processes were analyzed according to the 5-year average values. Then, in the study, in order to see the impacts of the crisis in monthly periods, the changes in the indicators were analyzed in terms of trends in the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. With the monthly data for the period of December 2002-June 2022, the non-parametric Wilcoxon Sign Test was used to evaluate whether the effects in the sector during the crisis periods showed statistical differences compared to the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. The findings reveal that the crises have had an impact on the banking system in Türkiye, both in terms of current data and professionals, and also that the effects of the 2001 crisis differ from other crises.
Crises cause critical vulnerabilities in economies and its sectors. The identification of the causes and consequences of crises is significant for the ability to take action or manage risks. Especially when it is considered that 21st-century crises are different from previous crises, the necessity of discussing the economic, and financial effects or consequences of these crises in-depth arises. In this context, the study aims to determine the impacts of 21st-century crises on the banking sector, which plays a critical role in the economy. The degree and form of the impact of crises on commercial banks in Türkiye are approached in two different ways. In the first approach, an in-depth interview technique consisting of two sections, demographic, and impacts of the crisis, was used for the target population. The target population was composed of people who have an active professional duty in the banking system during the 2001 Crisis, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, and the COVID-19 Crisis and who were in senior finance and banking sector managerial positions. Thus, the views of professionals working in the banking sector on how the 2001 Banking Crisis, the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis, and the COVID-19 Crisis affected the sector were evaluated in detail. In the second approach, the change in the trend of basic sizes in the financial statements of banks was analyzed statistically. The study takes into account the ratio of equity to total assets as a representation of sector capital adequacy, the ratio of loans to total assets as a representation of asset quality, the ratio of deposits to total assets as a representation of liquidity, the average asset, and equity profitability as a representation of profitability, the ratio of interest income to interest expenses as a representation of income structure, and the ratio of non-performing loans to total loans as a representation of risk. Additionally, the conversion rate of loans to deposits is also considered a representation of the process in banking activities. Firstly, the data trend in the 1996-2021 period was investigated and the crisis change processes were analyzed according to the 5-year average values. Then, in the study, in order to see the impacts of the crisis in monthly periods, the changes in the indicators were analyzed in terms of trends in the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. With the monthly data for the period of December 2002-June 2022, the non-parametric Wilcoxon Sign Test was used to evaluate whether the effects in the sector during the crisis periods showed statistical differences compared to the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. The findings reveal that the crises have had an impact on the banking system in Türkiye, both in terms of current data and professionals, and also that the effects of the 2001 crisis differ from other crises.
Açıklama
Finans Enstitüsü, Finans Ana Bilim Dalı, Uluslararası Bankacılık ve Finans Bilim Dalı
Anahtar Kelimeler
Bankacılık, Banking
