Bı·r Kus¸ak Bı·r Yol projesı·nı·n fı·nansal ekonomı·k boyutu: Küresel finans merkezleri potansiyelinin analizi
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2022
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Ku?reselles?me neticesinde gerçekleşen köklü deg?is?im, du?nya ticaretini hızlandırmış ve buna bağlı olarak u?lkelerde o?lc?ek ekonomisine erişme isteg?i doğmuş hatta ekonomik entegrasyon seviyeleri de artmaya başlamıştır. Bu bağlamda c?alıs?manın amacı, Bir Kuşak Bir Yol Projesi güzergâhında bulunan ülkelerin finansal ve ekonomik yapıları, finans merkezleri olma potansiyelleri dikkate alınarak bu ülkelerin ortak bir paydada bulunması durumunun incelenmesi, bu doğrultuda Bir Kuşak Bir Yol Projesi'nde; kara, ekonomi ve deniz koridoruna ilave olarak bir finans koridoru oluşturarak ülke ekonomilerine katkıda bulunabilmeleri amaçlanmıştır. Çalışmanın uygulama kısmında; güzergahta bulunan ülkelerin ülke performanslarının sıralamasının gerçekleştirilmesi için Çok Kriterli Karar Verme yöntemlerinden biri olan MOORA yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Daha sonrasında seçilen ülkelerin yabancı yatırımları ve büyüme oranlarını etkileyen faktörlerin belirlenmesi amacıyla için Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada ilk olarak MOORA yöntemiyle 127 ülke için yaşam kalitesi, iş yapabilirlik, ticaret kolaylığı, ekonomik ve finansal yapı dikkate alınarak makroekonomik performans sıralamaları elde edilmiştir. Çalışmada elde edilen performans sıralamaları 6 farklı bölge ve gelir grubuna göre her bölgenin en iyi performans gösteren 5 ülkesi belirlenmiştir. Bu ülkelerin temsiliyet gücü, toplam ülke sayısı dikkate alınarak ilgili bölgelerden finans merkezi olma kapasitesi değerlendirilerek 19 ülke seçilmiştir. İlgili ülkeler grubunu; Doğu Asya'yı temsilen Çin, Pasifik'i temsilen Singapur ve Endonezya, Latin Amerika ve Karayipleri temsilen Panama ve Şili, Orta Doğu ve Kuzey Afrika'yı temsilen İran İsrail Kuveyt ve Cezayir, Güney Asya'yı temsilen Hindistan Nepal ve Sri Lanka, Sahra Altı Afrika'yı temsilen Mozambik ve Moritanya, Avrupa'yı temsilen İngiltere ve İtalya, Avrupa'nın ve Asya'nın keşisim noktası olması nedeniyle Rusya ve Türkiye, Orta Asya'yı temsilen ise Özbekistan oluşturmaktadır. Çalışmanın ikinci aşamasında seçilen bu ülkelerin yatırımlarını ve büyümelerini etkileyen faktörler incelenmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar ilgili seçilen ülkeler arasında yatay kesit bağımlılığı olduğunu, daha açık bir ifadeyle birbirleri ile bütünleşik olduğunu göstermiştir. Ayrıca sonuçlara göre; dışa açıklık, tasarruflar, sabit sermaye yatırımları ve devlet harcamaları yabancı yatırımları pozitif etkilemektedir. Büyüme modeline ilişkin sonuçlar incelendiğinde ise yatırımların, tasarruf oranının, yabancı yatırımların ve istihdam oranının büyümeyi pozitif, para arzı ve cari denge ise büyümeyi negatif yönde etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak önerilen güzergâhta belirlenen 19 ülkenin finansal olarak birbirleri ile finansal işbirliği yapabilecekleri tespit edilmiştir. Ülkelerin finans merkezleri vasıtası ile kendi aralarında birlikte hareket etmeleri dolayısıyla Bir Kuşak Bir Yol Projesi'nde; kara, ekonomik ve deniz koridoruna ilave olarak bir finans koridoru oluşturarak ülke ekonomilerine katkıda bulunabileceklerdir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Bir Kuşak Bir Yol, Finans Merkezi, Dinamik Panel Veri Modeli, MOORA
The radical change that took place as a result of globalization accelerated world trade, and accordingly, the desire to reach economies of scale arose in the countries, and even the levels of economic integration began to increase. In this context, the study aims to examine the financial and economic structures of the countries on the route of the One Belt One Road Project, their potential to become financial centers, and to examine the situation of these countries to have a common denominator, and in this direction, in the One Belt One Road Project; In addition to the land, economy and sea corridor, it is aimed to contribute to the country's economy by creating a financial corridor. In the application part of the study; the MOORA method, which is one of the Multi-Criteria Decision Making methods, was used to rank the country performances of the countries on the route. Then, Dynamic Panel Data Analysis was used to determine the factors affecting foreign investments and growth rates of selected countries. In the study, firstly, macroeconomic performance rankings were obtained for 127 countries by using the MOORA method, taking into account the quality of life, the ability to do business, the ease of trade, and the economic and financial structure. The performance rankings obtained in the study were determined according to 6 different regions and income groups, and the 5 best-performing countries of each region were determined. Considering the representative power of these countries and the total number of countries, 19 countries were selected by evaluating their capacity to be financial centers from the relevant regions. Related countries group; China representing East Asia, Singapore, and Indonesia representing the Pacific, Panama, and Chile representing Latin America and the Caribbean, Iran Israel Kuwait and Algeria representing the Middle East and North Africa, India Nepal and Sri Lanka representing South Asia, Sahara Mozambique and Mauritania representing Six Africa, England, and Italy representing Europe, Russia, and Turkey since it is the intersection point of Europe and Asia, and Uzbekistan representing Central Asia. In the second stage of the study, the factors affecting the investments and growth of these selected countries were examined. The results obtained showed that there is a cross-section dependency between the selected countries, in other words, they are integrated. Also, according to the results; Openness, savings, fixed capital investments, and government expenditures affect foreign investments positively. When the results of the growth model are examined, it has been determined that investments, savings rate, foreign investments, and employment rate affect growth positively, while money supply and current account balance affect growth negatively. As a result, it has been determined that 19 countries determined on the proposed route can financially cooperate. In the One Belt One Road Project, as the countries act together among themselves through financial centers; They will be able to contribute to the country's economy by creating a financial corridor in addition to the land, economic, and sea corridor. Keywords: One Belt One Road, Financial Center, Dynamic Panel Data Model, MOORA
The radical change that took place as a result of globalization accelerated world trade, and accordingly, the desire to reach economies of scale arose in the countries, and even the levels of economic integration began to increase. In this context, the study aims to examine the financial and economic structures of the countries on the route of the One Belt One Road Project, their potential to become financial centers, and to examine the situation of these countries to have a common denominator, and in this direction, in the One Belt One Road Project; In addition to the land, economy and sea corridor, it is aimed to contribute to the country's economy by creating a financial corridor. In the application part of the study; the MOORA method, which is one of the Multi-Criteria Decision Making methods, was used to rank the country performances of the countries on the route. Then, Dynamic Panel Data Analysis was used to determine the factors affecting foreign investments and growth rates of selected countries. In the study, firstly, macroeconomic performance rankings were obtained for 127 countries by using the MOORA method, taking into account the quality of life, the ability to do business, the ease of trade, and the economic and financial structure. The performance rankings obtained in the study were determined according to 6 different regions and income groups, and the 5 best-performing countries of each region were determined. Considering the representative power of these countries and the total number of countries, 19 countries were selected by evaluating their capacity to be financial centers from the relevant regions. Related countries group; China representing East Asia, Singapore, and Indonesia representing the Pacific, Panama, and Chile representing Latin America and the Caribbean, Iran Israel Kuwait and Algeria representing the Middle East and North Africa, India Nepal and Sri Lanka representing South Asia, Sahara Mozambique and Mauritania representing Six Africa, England, and Italy representing Europe, Russia, and Turkey since it is the intersection point of Europe and Asia, and Uzbekistan representing Central Asia. In the second stage of the study, the factors affecting the investments and growth of these selected countries were examined. The results obtained showed that there is a cross-section dependency between the selected countries, in other words, they are integrated. Also, according to the results; Openness, savings, fixed capital investments, and government expenditures affect foreign investments positively. When the results of the growth model are examined, it has been determined that investments, savings rate, foreign investments, and employment rate affect growth positively, while money supply and current account balance affect growth negatively. As a result, it has been determined that 19 countries determined on the proposed route can financially cooperate. In the One Belt One Road Project, as the countries act together among themselves through financial centers; They will be able to contribute to the country's economy by creating a financial corridor in addition to the land, economic, and sea corridor. Keywords: One Belt One Road, Financial Center, Dynamic Panel Data Model, MOORA
Açıklama
Finans Enstitüsü, Finans Ana Bilim Dalı, Finansal İktisat Bilim Dalı
Anahtar Kelimeler
Ekonometri, Econometrics, Ekonomi
