Finansal krizler tarihi ve öncü göstergeler indeksini etkileyen faktörlerin analizi: Türkiye örneği
Küçük Resim Yok
Tarih
2019
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Geçmişten günümüze kadar mikro ve makro boyutta pek çok ekonomik buhran meydana gelmiştir. Finansal krizlerin sayısı çoğaldıkça ve etkisi derinleştikçe iktisatçılar ve hükümetler ortak paydada birleşip krizleri öngörülebilir kılmaya çalışmışlar ve çok önemli sonuçlar elde etmişlerdir. Günümüze gelindiğinde de krizler öngörülebilir hale getirilmiştir. Buradan yola çıkarak finansal krizler incelenmiş sebep-sonuç ilişkilerine odaklanılmıştır. Krizlerin gruplandırılması ve modellemeleri hakkında araştırmalar yapılmıştır. Öncü göstergeler indeksi açılımı yapılmış, etkisi ve başarısı irdelenmiştir. Öncü göstergeler indeksini etkileyen bağımsız değişkenler tespit edilmiş; bu değişkenlerin öncü göstergeler indeksine olan etkisi araştırılmış ve Türkiye modeli kurulmuştur. Çalışmanın amacı kriz dönemlerinin öncü göstergesi olan bileşik öncü göstergeler üzerinde etkili olduğu düşünülen PMI, API, BTI ve tüketici güven indekslerinin ilişkilerinin belirlenmesidir. Hem iş adamları görüşü hem tüketici görüşleri hem de finansal gidişatın durumu ile krizleri öncülemede ne denli başarılı olduğu belirlenmeye çalışılmıştır. Anahtar Kelimeler: kriz, finansal krizler, öncü göstergeler.
From the past to the present, many micro and macro-economic crises have occurred. As the number of financial crises that have occurred throughout history has grown and the impact has deepened, economists and governments have come together in the common denominator to try to make the crises predictable and have achieved very important results. Today, crises have become predictable. From this point of view, financial crises have been examined and focused on cause and effect relations. Researches on the grouping and modeling of crises were conducted. The index of leading indicators has been explained and its effect and success has been examined. The independent variables affecting the index of leading indicators were determined; these variables have investigated the effect of leading indicators index and the model of Turkey was founded. The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between PMI, API, BTI and consumer confidence indices, which are thought to be effective on compound leading indicators, which are the leading indicators of crisis periods. Both the views of businessmen, consumer opinions and the state of the financial course and the success of the crisis have been tried to determine how successful. Keywords: crisis, financial crises, leading economic indicators index.
From the past to the present, many micro and macro-economic crises have occurred. As the number of financial crises that have occurred throughout history has grown and the impact has deepened, economists and governments have come together in the common denominator to try to make the crises predictable and have achieved very important results. Today, crises have become predictable. From this point of view, financial crises have been examined and focused on cause and effect relations. Researches on the grouping and modeling of crises were conducted. The index of leading indicators has been explained and its effect and success has been examined. The independent variables affecting the index of leading indicators were determined; these variables have investigated the effect of leading indicators index and the model of Turkey was founded. The aim of this study is to determine the relationship between PMI, API, BTI and consumer confidence indices, which are thought to be effective on compound leading indicators, which are the leading indicators of crisis periods. Both the views of businessmen, consumer opinions and the state of the financial course and the success of the crisis have been tried to determine how successful. Keywords: crisis, financial crises, leading economic indicators index.
Açıklama
Finans Enstitüsü, Sermaye Piyasası Ana Bilim Dalı
Anahtar Kelimeler
Ekonomi, Economics, Maliye
