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    A Cyber-Secure generalized supermodel for wind power forecasting based on deep federated learning and image processing
    (Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Moayyed, Hamed; Moradzadeh, Arash; Mohammadi-Ivatloo, Behnam; Aguiar, A. Pedro; Ghorbani, Reza
    Accurate wind power forecasting is one of the most important operations within the economic dispatch problem to increase the performance of power and energy systems. Accordingly, this study proposes a cyber-resilient hybrid approach based on the Federated Learning and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) procedure for short-term wind power generation forecasting in different regions of Iran. Generalizability, data independence, forecasting for regions where no training data is available, and preserving the security and privacy of data are prominent features of the proposed method. The federated network was designed with an architecture of 9 clients to perform the training process and extract the salient features from the data associated with each region in each client via the CNN technique. Then, the generalized global supermodel is produced based on the extracted features in each client to forecast the wind power in new and unknown regions such as Mahshahr, Bojnord, and Lootak that had no training data available and had no effect on global supermodel generation. Various scenarios were developed to test the robustness of the suggested methodology. In the first scenario, wind power forecasting is performed based on the suggested technique. In this scenario, the accuracy of the generalized supermodel to forecast wind power generation in each of the Mahshahr, Bojnord, and Lootak regions is 84%, 85%, and 74%, respectively. The second scenario models the scaling attack by changing the wind speed parameters to evaluate the performance of forecasting models against the data integrity attack. In this scenario, an evaluation of the forecast results based on various performance metrics is conducted highlighting the accuracy reduction of the forecast model, due to the damage caused by cyber-attacks on the input data. In the third scenario, the detection of cyber-attack is done based on the image processing-based technique. The presented results emphasize the accurate performance and high generalizability of the cyber-resilient global supermodel in forecasting wind power in various regions of Iran.
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    Short-term electricity demand forecasting via variational autoencoders and batch training-based bidirectional long short-term memory
    (Elsevier, 2022) Moradzadeh, Arash; Moayyed, Hamed; Zare, Kazem; Mohammadi-Ivatloo, Behnam
    Electricity load forecasting is a key aspect for power producers to maximize their economic efficiency in deregulated markets. So far, many solutions have been employed to forecast the consumption load in power grids. However, most of these methods have suffered in modeling the time-series state of data and removing noise from real-world data. Thus, the forecasting results in most cases did not have acceptable accuracy due to the mentioned problems. In this paper, in order to short-term electricity load forecast in Tabriz, Iran, a hybrid technique based on deep learning applications called Variational Autoencoder Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (VAEBiLSTM) is presented. Pre-processing, noise cancellation, and time-series state modeling of the data are prominent features of the developed load forecasting model. In addition, in order to prevent overfitting problems in the process of training large amounts of data, the training process is developed in the form of batch training. Load forecasting is done using meteorological and environmental data of Tabriz city as well as historical information and days of the week as input variables. In the hybrid method structure, the Variational Autoencoders are applied to the data for data preprocessing and reconstruction. Then, the normalized, noise-free data is utilized as a dataset for training the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) network. The proposed training method for BiLSTM is based on batch training. To present the effectiveness of the proposed technique in a comparative approach, the conventional LSTM and Support Vector Regression (SVR) algorithms are also applied to the data. Each network is trained with input data related to the years of 2017 and 2018 to predict the electricity load of the Tabriz city separately for each of the four seasons of the 2019 year. The forecasting results obtained from each method are evaluated by different statistical performance indicators. It can be seen that the proposed model forecasts the load with the correlation coefficients (R) of 99.78%, 99.57%, 99.33%, and 99.76% for spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The presented results show that the proposed VAEBiLSTM method with the highest R values and minimum forecasting errors compared to the LSTM and SVR methods has high effectiveness and performance.