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Öğe Does economic complexity influence environmental performance? Empirical evidence from OECD countries(John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2022) Lee, Chien-Chiang; Olasehinde-Williams, GodwinEnvironmental degradation is a major challenge facing the world. Our view is that a country's productive structure, reflected through its knowledge content and technical capabilities (economic complexity), is strongly correlated with its environmental performance. To empirically confirm this view, the link between economic complexity and environmental performance in member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) was examined within a modified version of the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model incorporating two alternative measures of economic complexity. The model was estimated using the fixed effects extension proposed by Driscoll and Kraay (DK-FE) and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation techniques. Granger causality testing in frequency domain was also employed to examine country-specific relationships. The sample period extended from 2007 to 2016. The study findings provided reliable empirical justification for our position. The coefficients for economic complexity in the long-run estimations revealed that economic complexity positively impacted on environmental performance in the OECD countries. Granger causality outcomes also indicated economic complexity as a meaningful predictor of environmental performance in most of the OECD countries.Öğe Geopolitical oil price uncertainty transmission into core inflation: Evidence from two of the biggest global players(Elsevier, 2023) Lee, Chien-Chiang; Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin; Özkan, OktayThis research argues that inflation indirectly correlates with geopolitics through the oil markets. The argument is that uncertainties generated by geopolitics are often transmitted into core inflation through oil prices, and we provide empirical evidence to support this by establishing an uncertainty-oil-macroeconomy nexus for the biggest oil importing countries, the U.S. and China. The study specifically examines whether there are indirect contributions of geopolitical oil price uncertainty to inflation that appear in core inflation, excluding the more volatile food and energy prices. It employs a non-parametric quantile causality technique for analyzing how geopolitical oil price uncertainty and core inflation interact in both countries and conducts rolling windows based non-parametric quantile causality analysis for robustness. The full-time non-parametric quantile causal ity results show that geopolitical oil price risk strongly affects core inflation both in mean and variance, espe cially in the mid-quantiles, and that its effect is greater in variance relative to mean for both countries. The rolling windows-based outcomes indicate that geopolitical oil price risk exerts an increasing influence on core inflation during important geopolitical events such as the Euro crisis, Brexit, presidential elections, trade wars, and COVID-19, and these impacts differ not only between countries, but also according to whether causality is mean or variance. Finally, the significance of the findings is discussed.Öğe Geopolitical oil price uncertainty transmission into core inflation: Evidence from two of the biggest global players (vol 126, 106983, 2023)(Elsevier, 2024) Lee, Chien-Chiang; Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin; Özkan, Oktay[Abstract Not Available]Öğe Is geopolitical oil price uncertainty forcing the world to use energy more efficiently? Evidence from advanced statistical methods(Elsevier B.V., 2024) Lee, Chien-Chiang; Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin; Özkan, OktayThis paper argues that energy efficiency is a potent shield against oil price uncertainty in an increasingly interconnected world fraught with geopolitical tensions. By reducing dependence on oil, enhancing economic resilience, and improving energy security, energy efficiency measures offer multifaceted benefits for both national economies and global stability. Specifically, a wavelet coherence analysis is conducted to study the response of global energy efficiency to geopolitical oil price uncertainty. Quantile-on-quantile and quantile regressions are additionally employed to separate the impacts of various geopolitical oil price risk quantiles on the quantiles of energy efficiency. These methods are utilized in the examination of global time-series data covering the timeframe 2004:Q1–2020:Q4. The wavelet coherence outcomes indicate a positive correlation between geopolitical oil price uncertainty and energy efficiency, particularly during the energy crisis of the 2000s and the COVID-19 pandemic. The results also reveal that geopolitical oil price uncertainty leads to energy efficiency, indicating that an upsurge in geopolitical oil price uncertainty causes energy efficiency to increase. Moreover, the results from quantile-on-quantile and quantile regressions affirm the predominantly positive effects of geopolitical oil price uncertainty on global energy efficiency. Our conclusion therefore is that through strategic investments, innovative policies, and international collaborations relating to energy efficiency, nations can fortify themselves against the destabilizing effects of geopolitical conflicts on energy markets. This would ensure a more sustainable and secure energy future for all.Öğe The synergistic effect of green trade and economic complexity on sustainable environment: A new perspective on the economic and ecological components of sustainable development(John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2022) Lee, Chien-Chiang; Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin; Gyamfi, Bright AkwasiIt is commonly argued in what is termed the degrowth strategy that economic growth cannot occur side by side with environmental protection. In this study, it is instead argued that the spread of green products through economic complexity and international trade are possible means of solving this problem. To this end, the individual and interactive environmental impacts of economic complexity and international green trade are examined in a panel of 24 European Union nations between 2000 and 2018. Panel quantile regressions (QRs) and Driscoll-Kraay fixed effect-OLS regressions are employed in analysing the relationships. The findings reveal that both green trade and economic complexity have beneficial individual effects on the environment. Their interaction effect further confirms that they have a complementary synergistic impact on the environment of the 24 EU countries. It thus implies that both green trade and economic complexity act better together than separately. Countries interested in achieving sustainable environment can do so by raising local productive capabilities, such that they are able to quickly transition into the production of technology-intensive, eco-friendly items. Alternatively, they can also explore the unique benefits provided by international trade in green products in cases where they do not have the ability to locally produce certain green goods. Better still, they can pursue both objectives simultaneously.Öğe What does export diversification do for energy demand? Evidence from the Global North(SPRINGER HEIDELBERG, 2022) Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin; Lee, Chien-Chiang; Folorunsho, AjideThis paper contributes to the trade-energy literature by examining the effect of export product diversification on the energy demand of 30 countries located in the Global North over the period 1980-2014. A nonparametric time-varying coefficient panel data model with fixed effects is employed for its ability to produce robust outcomes in the presence of parameter instabilities, nonstationarity, regime shifts, and time variations. As a second step, the paper also utilizes the nonparametric fixed effects extension of Driscoll and Kraay, which is robust to spatial/cross-sectional dependence, as well as to autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity. The results indicate that export diversification lowers overall energy demand in the Global North, and the size of the impact has been on a gradual increase over the years. The paper concludes that if a conscious effort is made to ensure that product diversification is towards energy-efficient goods, export product diversification can serve as a useful strategy for managing energy consumption and mitigating its negative environmental effects.
