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    How Do Energy Market Shocks Affect Economic Activity in the US Under Changing Financial Conditions?
    (Springer International Publishing, 2022) Balcilar, Mehmet; Usman, Ojonugwa; Roubaud, David
    Credit markets play a crucial role in the propagation of shocks through an economy. Both economic uncertainty and oil market shocks transmit through credit markets to various sectors of an economy. However, the transmission of the shocks depends on the state of an economy as crises periods behave quite differently from normal times. We use a nonlinear vector autoregressive (VAR) model to study the transmission of uncertainty and oil market shocks using monthly data over the 1986:M1–2021:M1 period. The nonlinear VAR model allows the transmission of uncertainty and oil market shocks to a change during financial distress periods. We find that economic uncertainty is closely related to financial conditions and transmission dynamic change during financial crises. Uncertainty shocks are recessionary with a stronger effect during financial distress. Oil supply shocks associated with increasing oil prices are also recessionary and stronger during financial distress while positive demand shocks are expansionary. We find strong asymmetry in responses of macroeconomic aggregates across financial regimes and signs of the shocks. © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022.
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    Investing green for sustainable development without ditching economic growth
    (John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 2022) Balcilar, Mehmet; Usman, Ojonugwa; Ike, George N.
    Global warming and other significant climatic changes arising from the accumulation of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have placed great policy puzzles on whether to slow or not to slow gross domestic product (GDP) growth. This paper presents and estimates empirical models of growth using standard tools of growth empirics for 23 OECD countries over the period 1990–2017. The main objective is to examine the role of green energy consumption and investment on economic growth. Using the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) with fixed effects, empirical results suggest that green energy consumption and investment—in the sense of renewable energy consumption and expenditure in renewable energy research and development (R&D)—have small, although positive effects on economic growth. These effects are heterogeneous, leading to asymmetric patterns over the conditional quantile distribution of per-capita GDP with stronger effects found in the lower quantiles. The implication of our findings is that capacity utilization in green energy consumption and investment has not been developed to a viable level that will mitigate greenhouse effects and spur sustainable development in the long run.
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    The investment volatility-dampening role of foreign aid in poor sub-Saharan African countries
    (Routledge, 2022) Balcilar, Mehmet; Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin; Tokar, Berkan
    Sustained investment is required for economic growth. Investment however often experiences severe volatility in poor countries, making spending plans difficult to formulate, and diminishing growth potentials. Foreign aid serves as an important source of complementary financing for sustained investment. This paper thus studies the effect of aid inflows on total investment volatility in 19 heavily indebted poor subSaharan African countries over the period 1980–2018. Employing the cross-sectionally augmented distributed lag (CS-DL) estimation technique for long-run coefficients in dynamic heterogeneous panels with cross-sectional dependence along with bootstrap panel causality testing, we show that aid has an inverse relationship with investment volatility. We thus conclude that aid can be viewed as a dampening factor for investment volatility in poor countries. We also show that the ability of sudden reductions in aid inflows to trigger investment volatility is bigger than the ability of sudden increases in aid inflows to lower investment volatility.
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    Nonlinear network connectedness: Assessing financial risk transmission in MENA and influence of external financial conditions
    (Elsevier, 2024) Balcilar, Mehmet; Usman, Ojonugwa; Duman, Gazi Murat
    This study investigates the influence of global financial market conditions on financial risk connectedness and transmission among the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) economies. Utilizing weekly realized stock market volatilities as a measure of risk and employing a smooth transition threshold vector autoregressive (STVAR) model to analyze risk transmission under varying levels of financial stress, the authors also examine the impact of external macroeconomic conditions on the risk connectedness of MENA economies. The results indicate that the overall connectedness, based on a standard VAR model, is moderate at 48.34%. However, in the low financial stress regime, overall connectedness increases to 52.79%, and in the high financial stress regime, it rises to 72.94%, indicating stronger risk interdependency among MENA countries during times of high stress. In the high financial stress regime, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates are identified as net risk transmitters among MENA countries. The study also reveals that risk transmission across MENA is more pronounced in the regime-dependent model compared to the overall mean-based VAR model.
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    On the connectedness of commodity markets: A critical and selective survey of empirical studies and bibliometric analysis
    (John Wiley and Sons Inc, 2022) Balcilar, Mehmet; Usman, Ojonugwa; Agan, Busra
    The low correlation between commodities and tradi-tional assets, particularly after the crash of the equitymarket in the year 2000, is seemingly a major factorinfluencing global investors’ appetite to embrace com-moditiesasaprofitablealternativefinancialasset.Inthispaper, we critically and selectively provide the knowl-edge map of the connectedness of commodity marketsbased on the scientific articles published on the Webof Science (WoS). In doing this, we group the literaturesurvey based on notable commodity markets and pro-vide an overview of the empirical literature based onsingle- and cross-commodity markets. The key findingof the literature survey is that there is connectednesswithin and across commodity markets, with evidenceof time variations triggered largely by global financialcrises. In addition, from 144 articles over the last twodecades (1990–2021), significant conceptual clusters andnetworks arise, which suggest a close density of net-works in terms of the keyword clusters, keyword plusco-occurrences, country collaborations, and journal co-citations. Furthermore, there are significant conceptualclusters that cover the association of connectednesstype, commodity market, type of statistical analysis,association of major energy shocks, futures market, co-movement, and association of transmission in stock and gold markets. Our analysis, therefore, suggests, amongother things, the need for future research to analyze thepricing of pollution credits as the newest commoditymarket. This helps economic actors, investors, and pol-icymakers have a better understanding of the dynamicbehavior of commodity prices.
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    Operational behaviours of multinational corporations, renewable energy transition, and environmental sustainability in Africa: Does the level of natural resource rents matter?
    (Elsevier, 2023) Balcilar, Mehmet; Usman, Ojonugwa; Ike, George N.
    The pollution haven hypothesis postulates a transfer of unsustainable production practices by multinational corporations (MNCs) to their operational bases in developing economies with lax environmental regulations. However, little is known about the role of natural resource rents in this relationship. To this end, the study empirically investigates the interaction effects of the operational behaviours of multinational corporations (MNCs) through foreign direct investment (FDI) and natural resource rents on environmental sustainability in 34 African countries over the period 1990 to 2017. Identifying two main pathways through which this can occur, we specify two models with CO2 emissions and renewable energy as separate response variables. Employing both the System Generalized Method of Moments (SYS-GMM) and Method of Moments Quantile regression (MM-QR) estimation techniques, the empirical results suggest that natural resource rents play a vital moderating role in determining how the operational behaviours of MNCs affect environmental sustainability. The interaction term of foreign investment and natural resource rents correlates negatively and positively with environmental pollution and renewable energy transition respectively. This suggests that at a certain level of natural resource rents, the strength of the operational behaviours of MNCs to increase environmental degradation is reduced. Furthermore, in countries with lower levels of natural resource rents, an increase in foreign investment de teriorates the environment, while in countries with lower levels of foreign investment, an increase in resource rents degrades the environment. The dynamics follow the reverse direction when renewable energy is the response variable. These findings, therefore, have policy implications for achieving Africa’s goal of carbon neutrality.
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    Tourism development and U.S energy security risks: a KRLS machine learning approach
    (Routledge, 2023) Balcilar, Mehmet; Usman, Ojonugwa; Özkan, Oktay
    This study presents evidence on how tourism development affects U.S. energy security risks from 1997 to 2020 using a Kernel-based regularized least squares (KRLS) machine learning approach. Our empirical results demonstrate that tourism development amplifies the U.S. energy security-related risks. Also, while technological innovation and urbanization dampen the pressure on energy security-related risks, economic policy-based uncertainty and industrial production increase energy security risks. These results survive in the disaggregated models except for the environmental-related risks sub-index which decreases as a result of tourism development. Our findings, therefore, provide useful insights for policymakers to minimize energy security-related risks.