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    Symmetric and asymmetric GARCH estimations of the impact of oil price uncertainty on output growth: evidence from the G7
    (Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH, 2023) Alao, Rasheed O.; Alhassan, Abdulkareem; Alao, Saheed; Olanipekun, Ifedolapo O.; Olasehinde-Williams, Godwin O.; Usman, Ojonugwa
    Crude oil is an essential source of energy. Without access to energy, output growth is impossible. As a result of this link, volatility in oil prices has the ability to induce fuctuations in the output of both developed and developing economies. Moreover, factors such as business cycles and policy changes often introduce nonlinearity into the transmission mechanism of oil price shocks. This study therefore examines not only the interconnectedness of oil price volatility and output growth, but also the nonlinear, asymmetric impact of oil price volatility on output growth in the countries making up the Group of Seven. To this end, monthly data on West Texas Intermediate oil price and industrial production indices of the Group of Seven countries over the period 1990:01 to 2019:08 is used for empirical analysis. The study employs the DCC and cDCC-GARCH techniques for symmetric empirical analysis. The asymmetric empirical analysis is also conducted via GJR-GARCH, FIEGARCH, HYGARCH and cDCC-GARCH techniques. The fndings reveal disparities in the magnitudes of the positive and negative (asymmetric) efects of oil price shocks on output growth. The results also reveal that past news and lagged volatility have a signifcant impact on the current conditional volatility of the output growth of the Group of Seven countries. The study concludes that the impact of oil price volatility on output growth in the selected economies is asymmetric, the volatility is highly persistent and clustered, and the asymmetric GARCH models outperform the symmetric GARCH models.
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    Towards low carbon and sustainable environment: does income inequality mitigate ecological footprints in Sub-Saharan Africa?
    (Springer, 2023) Gimba, Obadiah Jonathan; Alhassan, Abdulkareem; Ozdeser, Huseyin; Ghardallou, Wafa; Seraj, Mehdi; Usman, Ojonugwa
    This paper contributes to the literature on the environment–economic development nexus by examining whether higher income inequality mitigates environmental degradation in Sub-Saharan Africa for the period 1995?2018. The paper uses the second-generation panel data estimation techniques through the novel augmented Anderson–Hsiao (AAH) estima tor. This method allows regressors to be self-instrumenting and efcient with panel data where the cross-sectional units are greater than time and remains valid even when errors are correlated. The result of the Westerlund cointegration confrms the existence of a long run relationship. Also, the AAH estimation fnds that a 1% increase in income inequality is associated with a 0.567 decline in environmental degradation. Furthermore, a rise in GDP per capita is linked to a reduction in environmental pollution. However, it does not vali date the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. Population growth and urbanization were found to exacerbate environmental degradation while access to electric ity enhances a sustainable environment. To ensure the robustness of the AAH estimation, the Pseudo-Poison Maximum Likelihood Estimator with the high dimensional fxed efects was used. The results showed that, although the efects were smaller, all the coefcients survived. Therefore, our fndings substantiate the marginal propensity to emit hypothesis which posits that in economies with high inequality, there is the likelihood that a large proportion of the population would reduce their energy and other carbon-intensive con sumption, which consequently improves environmental quality. Although this channel of reducing emissions is not sustainable as it comes with huge economic losses. Policy rec ommendations were provided.